Tax Policy Analysis and Revenue Forecasting

Course overview

African governments are under pressure to raise more domestic revenue while keeping tax systems fair and supportive of growth. Every reform proposal raises the same questions: how much will it raise, who will pay, and what will it do to the economy? This tax policy analysis course gives analysts in finance ministries and revenue authorities the methods to answer those questions with evidence.

Over two weeks, participants study the principles of taxation and the economics of the main taxes: VAT and excise, personal and corporate income tax, property and wealth taxes, trade taxes and natural resource taxation. They examine current issues such as taxing the digital economy, base erosion and profit shifting, tax incentives and tax expenditures. The second week focuses on quantitative tools: building revenue forecasts from macroeconomic data, tax buoyancy and elasticity, microsimulation and typical taxpayer models, and distributional analysis. Participants apply these methods to anonymised revenue data and present a costed reform proposal.

Participants leave able to analyse tax policy options rigorously and to produce credible revenue forecasts for budget decisions.

What you will be able to do

• Apply the principles of efficient, equitable and simple taxation
• Analyse the economic effects of major taxes and incentives
• Assess current issues including digital economy taxation and profit shifting
• Estimate tax buoyancy and elasticity from revenue data
• Build macro-based revenue forecasts for budget preparation
• Use microsimulation and typical taxpayer models to cost reforms
• Analyse the distributional impact of tax changes
• Present a costed tax reform proposal to decision-makers

Who should attend

For tax policy analysts, economists and revenue forecasters in finance ministries, revenue authorities and parliamentary budget offices. Basic economics and spreadsheet skills are expected.

• Tax policy analysts
• Revenue authority economists
• Ministry of finance budget officers
• Parliamentary budget office staff
• Tax advisers and consultants
• County revenue officers
• Researchers in fiscal policy

Course outline

Week 1

Week 2

Fees are per participant in US dollars and cover tuition, course materials and your certificate. Travel and accommodation are not included.